The Wagner Group in Africa Edition

Colin here. The Wagner Group, the Russian state-funded private military company, casts a substantial, albeit murky, shadow across Africa. Whether it is cozying up to nations with valuable mining stakes or dictators needing hired muscle to maintain power, Wagner’s presence is palpable. From the Central African Republic to Mali and Mozambique, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s gang have demonstrated their economic and military prowess, often coupled with the same subterfuge, disinformation, and electoral interventions that they’ve deployed in the US and elsewhere. 

As noted by the FT:

"For over half a decade in Africa, Wagner has afforded Moscow swift, affordable sway. Moreover, the Kremlin can conveniently distance itself from Wagner's deeds, encompassing election meddling and propaganda efforts in numerous nations, as well as purported massacres in the CAR and Mali. In countries like CAR, Wagner has devised a cutthroat, self-sustaining 'business model', blending military aggression with control over lucrative gold and diamond mines."

WITI Classifieds:

We are experimenting with running some weekly classifieds in WITI. If you’re interested in running an ad, you can purchase one through this form. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to drop a line.

Interpreting the internet for the tasteful reader. Join 23,000+ subscribers who rely on Dirt for their cultural alpha. Subscribe for free.

Why is this interesting? 

At press time for WITI, the world has bid farewell to Yevgeny Prigozhin following a catastrophic plane crash. His end mimics the fate of many Putin adversaries that have fallen from the sky from various heights, though no conclusive evidence has yet emerged.

But what’s the future for Wagner’s African campaigns? Its decentralized nature suggests the operations could persist without their brutish architect.

The Economist sheds light:

"Wagner isn't a conventional corporate entity but more a sprawling conglomerate with numerous affiliates. Public data about its financials is scant, but Africa undoubtedly plays a pivotal role in its revenue streams. On June 27th, U.S. sanctions targeted several Wagner-affiliated firms, including one overseeing the Ndassima mine in CAR, boasting gold reserves exceeding $1bn."

Kimberly Marten from Columbia University’s Barnard College opines, “Prigozhin’s fate [Referring to the earlier failed coup, not his death] hardly dictates the trajectory of the Wagner Group in Africa.” He’s neither the quintessential CEO of a cohesive Wagner entity nor a universal commander. Even with his charisma and logistical acumen, the Russian defense machinery could feasibly find his substitute.

Wagner Group’s intricate web in Africa still highlights the extent of high-stakes geopolitical maneuvering at play: Africa is strategically important to China, the US, and Russia on multiple fronts. And given these high stakes—both in terms of power and resources—it’s likely that the group’s influence in the region will remain sans its figurehead. But to what level of potency remains to be seen. (CJN) 

Quick Links:

• If you didn’t read the New Yorker profile of Prigozhin/Wagner, it’s worth the time. (NRB)

• I finally got around to posting some of the videos from my marketing X AI conference in the spring. The first one, along with a write-up, went up yesterday: my talk on building intuition for a fundamentally counterintuitive technology. (NRB)

• Guessing this one is close to many WITI-ers hearts: Charlie Warzel explores what happened to Wirecutter. (NRB)

—

Thanks for reading,

Noah (NRB) & Colin (CJN)

—

Why is this interesting? is a daily email from Noah Brier & Colin Nagy (and friends!) about interesting things. If you’ve enjoyed this edition, please consider forwarding it to a friend. If you’re reading it for the first time, consider subscribing.

Subscribe now