Colin here. You’re not used to seeing a lot of grip-and-grin photos of Bashar Al-Assad. Since 2011, he has typically been Syria-bound, waging his bloody campaign to hold onto power. Yet in mid-March, he made a flying visit, not to his patrons Russia and Iran, but rather to the UAE. He was given a statesman-like welcome: visiting key industrial centers and sitting for one-on-ones with Muhammad bin Zayed (aka MBZ) and Dubai’s ruler.
It’s interesting on a few levels. The first is the timing. The visit coincided with the anniversary of the popular uprising that Assad has put down with force, with the help of Russia. This has come with indiscriminate civilian casualties, the use of chemical weapons, and other brutal tactics, many of which we are now watching Russia deploy in Ukraine. Second, it is telling that Assad needed to make this trip—going hat in hand to people that he has disavowed due to regional politics in the past, notably the UAE’s lack of support of Hezbollah. Assad needs help, capital, and resources to rebuild the country.
Much of Syria looks like a terrible place to invest in, but a few projects could be lucrative for Emirati firms. dp World, the Dubai ports giant, is keen to invest in Tartous, a Mediterranean harbour in a relatively calm part of Syria.
What is most notable is the UAE breaking rank with the US. This is due to pendulum-like US policy in the region. Obama put the Saudis on ice. Trump brought them back front and center, and then Biden continued on the same Obama path until he had to do something about oil prices.
It looks like Assad is playing multiple nations off each other and playing to Syria’s self-interest. He’s clearly gamed this out, but the mere act of the Emirates hosting the tyrant portends more interesting diversions between the US and the UAE on policy down the line. (CJN)
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Thanks for reading,
Noah (NRB) & Colin (CJN)
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