Ahmed Al Omran

Ahmed Al Omran (AAO) is a reporter for the Financial Times covering Saudi Arabia. He previously worked with the Wall Street Journal and NPR. He writes the excellent Substack Newsletter “Riyadh Bureau,” which presents a deeper dive into modern Saudi Arabia. This piece is an excerpt that originally ran there. Follow him on Twitter @ahmed -Colin (CJN)  Ahmed here. As part of “Vision 2030,” Saudi Arabia aims to increase the number of foreign umrah pilgrims to 30 million over the next ten years. That’s why the decision about the fate of this year’s hajj season amid the coronavirus pandemic has been particularly difficult, coming months after authorities suspended umrah—also known as the “lesser pilgrimage” that can be performed year-round—in late February.After a long wait, the government finally announced last week that the hajj pilgrimage won’t be canceled, but instead will be limited to a small number. Hajj Minister Mohammed Benten said authorities have yet to make a call on the exact figure, but it could be around 1,000: a tiny fraction of the nearly 2.5 million people who performed it last year.“We do not expect tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands,” he said during a press conference along with the health minister Tawfik al-Rabiah. The criteria of who would be selected to perform hajj are still being finalized, but Benten said priority would be given to members of foreign diplomatic missions in the kingdom and first responders from healthcare workers and security forces.Rabiah said the pilgrimage would only be open to Saudi-based people under 65 years of age and without any pre-existing chronic health conditions. They would be tested for coronavirus before arriving in Mecca and later required to quarantine at home for two weeks, he added.Why is this interesting?For many years, Saudi Arabia has rejected the term “religious tourism.” Prince Sultan bin Salman, the king’s son who has served as tourism commissioner for nearly two decades, told the United Nations in 2010: “The kingdom…does not consider hajj and umrah as tourist activities, it has always sought to separate them totally, and it is not allowed to use the term religious tourism when it comes to recording and publishing tourism data…”The kingdom takes great pride in hosting the pilgrimage—the monarch’s official title is “Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques”—and views its success in organizing the ritual as integral to its claim of leadership in the Islamic world.However, the aversion to that term has dissipated in recent years as the government identified tourism, including the religious variety, as a main pillar of its strategy to diversify the economy under an ambitious reform program led by Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a younger half-brother of Prince Sultan, who was promoted to heir apparent in 2017.While Saudi Arabia fully reopened on June 21 after months of lockdowns and strict curfews, international travel is still banned. The number of coronavirus infections and deaths in the kingdom continues to rise, with more than 186,000 confirmed cases and 1,600 fatalities so far, but the government appears keen to restart the economy because the current indicators are bleak.The International Monetary Fund said the kingdom’s economy will shrink by 6.8% this year. That’s a much sharper fall than the 2.3% contraction estimated in April. Government data shows that GDP shrunk by 1% in the first quarter and central bank governor Ahmed al-Kholifey said the second quarter “certainly won’t be any better,” but he added they are less pessimistic than the IMF.The pessimism is probably warranted considering the tough austerity measures taken by the government to cope with the impact from low oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic. The decision to increase value-added tax from 5% to 15% is particularly notable. Local consumer spending was down 34.6% in April compared with the same month last year. For comparison, many other countries have cut or deferred VAT as part of their coronavirus stimulus packages.Despite the economic crunch and cuts to spending, the government has insisted that its tourism strategy remains on track and projects backed by the sovereign wealth fund are moving ahead. Construction is said to continue at the Red Sea Project and Qiddiya, while the ultra-luxurious resort Amaala unveiled its airport design by Foster + Partners.The Ministry of Tourism has launched a tourism development fund with an initial $4 billion investment and announced a summer program to encourage local tourists to visit ten destinations around the country.“When we polled people on whether or not they wanted to leave the kingdom for the summer, 81% replied in the negative, despite the fact that about 63% of them wanted to go out and have fun,” said Fahad Hamidaddin, a senior official at the ministry. The same survey suggests that 85% are still planning to take a break of around ten days this year and 78% are curious about exploring their own country.Tourism officials seem to hope that at least some people want to breathe after the virus kept them inside for months, but it is hard to see how many of them would be able to overcome the combined economic and health anxiety to enjoy a holiday for now. (AAO)Photo of the Day:F1 starts up again this weekend in Austria (previous F1 WITIS: 1, 2, and 3). Albert Fabrega is probably my favorite F1 Twitter follow. He breaks down photos of the tiny changes teams make on the car week-to-week. Here’s how he described the photo below: “New front wing top flaps for Renault to improve outwash. 3rd.element connected to main plane. Interesting. New sideplate.” (NRB)Quick Links:Emily Oster, an economist, and writer of books on pregnancy and parenting, on what it will take to open schools in the fall. (NRB)Love this project from a friend of WITI Adam Wray and the Notre crew. Generative music from plants. (CJN) From The Atlantic: U.S. Coronavirus Testing Could Fail Again (NRB)Thanks for reading,Noah (NRB) & Colin (CJN) & Ahmed (AAO)—Why is this interesting? is a daily email from Noah Brier & Colin Nagy (and friends!) about interesting things. If you’ve enjoyed this edition, please consider forwarding it to a friend. If you’re reading it for the first time, consider subscribing (it’s free!).

Why is this interesting? - The Saudi Arabia Edition 

WITI contributor Ahmed Al Omran (AAO) was formerly the FT’s man in Saudi. Now, he’s making his excellent Substack, Riyadh Bureau, his full-time gig. We’re publishing his recent addition on the Qatar blockade here. For some of the most thoughtful analysis on Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, go subscribe to his newsletter with a 20 percent discount. -Colin (CJN)Ahmed here. Is the Gulf crisis about to be resolved? Noises from Kuwait, Riyadh, and Doha all suggest that, after more than three years of impasse and near misses, we may finally have a breakthrough.Kuwait foreign minister Sheikh Ahmed Nasser al-Mohammed al-Sabah said Friday that “fruitful talks” were recently held and all parties “affirmed their commitment to Gulf and Arab solidarity and stability”. Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said he is “somewhat optimistic” that a resolution involving not just the kingdom but also the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt is now possible. His Qatari counterpart Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman on Twitter called the Kuwaiti statement “an imperative step towards resolving the GCC crisis”.It remains unclear what might be the final form of this agreement. News reports in recent days said the two sides remain far apart on many issues, but they may agree on a series of “confidence-building measures” such as re-opening the land border and allowing Qatar Airways to use the kingdom’s airspace. In return, Qatar would be expected to “tone down” its Al Jazeera television network coverage.Why is this interesting?If, and that’s a big if, this indeed marks the beginning of the end of this crisis, then it is probably worth reflecting on how we got here in the first place.It all started one early morning in late May 2017. It was the holy month of Ramadan when people around the region would spend their evenings watching soap operas on television after breaking their fast with family and friends at sunset. At some point after midnight, the Qatar state news agency website published controversial comments about Iran and Israel attributed to ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Saudi-owned Al Arabiya channel and Abu Dhabi-based Sky News Arabia immediately carried the comments with flashing “breaking news” banners. Al Jazeera reported that Qatar News Agency was the victim of a cyberattack and the Qatari government denied that Sheikh Tamim made any statement.The denials coming from Doha did not seem to matter to Al Arabiya or Sky News Arabia. The two channels continued their wall-to-wall coverage of the alleged comments with anti-Qatar pundits in-studio and remotely (including many from Egypt) until at least 7 am. At first, they simply ignored Qatari denials and insisted on treating the purported comments as fact. Later that day, their anchors and pundits would mention them in passing before dismissing the hacking claims and saying it did not matter if the comments were real or fake because Qatar’s conduct and foreign policy has always been problematic.On June 5th, 2017, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt announced cutting off air, sea, and land links with Qatar and severing all diplomatic relations. They accused Qatar of supporting terrorism, interfering in their domestic affairs, developing ties with Iran, and giving refuge to key figures in Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. Qatar denied these allegations. The four countries issued a list of 13 sweeping demands and gave Qatar ten days to comply; Qatar said the demands were designed to be rejected.With both sides digging in their heels, the Gulf crisis gradually reached a stalemate. Qatar has managed to overcome the initial shock of the boycott and found alternative—if expensive—routes for transport and trade. Saudi crown prince described Qatar as “a very, very, very small issue” as the kingdom had to deal with a host of other crises in quick succession: a prolonged war in Yemen, the Ritz-Carlton corruption purge, a diplomatic rift with Canada, and the Khashoggi murder. The late Sheikh Sabah of Kuwait tried to meditate until he passed away in October. It seemed that his attempts were being repeatedly frustrated by a new generation of rulers who had little time for the Gulf’s long-held traditions and decorum, but maybe there is a light at the end of this tunnel after all.Every time I was asked by colleagues or friends about this crisis since it first broke out, my answer has been pretty much the same: I think the two sides will come to some compromise before Qatar hosts the World Cup in late 2022, simply because it will be such a logistical nightmare to try to organize this huge international event under the travel and trade restrictions introduced by the boycott. The news about a potential thaw must have come as a huge source of relief for Fifa president Gianni Infantino who at some point tried to play peacemaker by naïvely suggesting that an expanded tournament can be shared by Qatar and its neighbors.As we tentatively move closer to a conclusion of this saga, it is hard not to look back at the past three years and wonder about the resources spent on this dispute that could have been used elsewhere. Saudi Arabia and its allies may have been right that their long-term grievances against Qatar and its maverick policies must be addressed and they insist they had no choice but to take this course of action, but one has to ask if there could have been a more efficient way to handle this, especially considering the repetitional damage incurred by the kingdom as a result of this crisis.For some observers from outside who may not be privy to the long and complex history of the region, Saudi Arabia must have looked like it was bullying its much smaller neighbor. Another aspect not often talked about in this dispute is the human cost. There are many families that have moved freely between these Gulf countries in the last three decades thanks to GCC rules that allow people to travel in the region without a passport and practically treat the citizens of each country as locals when it comes to employment and ownership. It is estimated that more than 17,000 Saudis were living in Qatar before the crisis. Overnight, they suddenly had to make major life decisions about their jobs and families without having many options.Finally, it will be interesting to watch how the potential end of the Gulf crisis would play in the context of the Saudi-UAE alliance. The two countries have diverged over the Yemen war and more recently we saw tension related to the compliance with Opec+ oil cuts. Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have dismissed the idea of a limited resolution that doesn’t include UAE as well as Bahrain and Egypt. But those considered “Abu Dhabi’s men” in Riyadh who continue to define the dispute in the terms of an existential battle, and some of them have not been exactly shy about expressing skepticism of the recent talks, arguing that the Qataris still cannot be trusted.When rumors about a possible opening in the crisis began gathering pace in early November, Saudi journalist Abdulaziz al-Khames, who hosts a talk show on Sky News Arabia, posted a stern video warning against the calls for ending the rift where he attempted to channel Amal Dunqul’s famous poem “Do Not Reconcile”. “Reconciliation is a beautiful thing, but would you reconcile with someone who turned against you? Would you reconcile with someone who betrayed you every time you trusted them, as we have seen in 2014? Would you reconcile with someone who hides his dagger behind his back?” Khames asked. “Those who call for reconciliation do not understand the story. The only thing they care about is their own interests…”Similar sentiments can be seen on the other side. “The Gulf reconciliation being talked about over the past two days requires first apologizing to the Qatari people and for Saudi Arabia to cease its previous behavior where it aimed to force its will and agenda on others and not to interfere in deciding the fate of Arab populations who seek liberty from tyrannical regimes,” Issa Al Ishaq, a Qatari writer, said on Twitter.It is not surprising that, after three years of nasty attacks and counterattacks, the mistrust is running deep. It is far easier to take something apart than put it back together. (AAO) ___Partner Post: WITI x TaikaWe’re coffee obsessives at WITI and have tried a lot of hacks, like taking L-theanine with our morning brew to counter the jagged feeling of too many cups. Fortunately, Taika (read co-founder Michael’s MMD here) is a few steps ahead and ushering a new wave of innovation to the category. They make perfectly calibrated, delicious coffee blended with adaptogens to make you feel awake, aware, and inspired. Plus, they have deep coffee credentials; the co-founder, Kal Freese, is a two-time Finnish Barista Champion and Top 10 World Barista Champion. They are approaching their versions and iterations like technologists, which is also quite interesting, putting out versions of the coffee as they improve and experiment. We’re partial to the Macadamia Latte, but everything is delicious and recommended if you want a shot of crisp, focused energy. Buy a case for 15 percent off with the code FRIENDSOFWITI. (CJN)Thanks for reading,Noah (NRB) & Colin (CJN) & Ahmed (AAO)—Why is this interesting? is a daily email from Noah Brier & Colin Nagy (and friends!) about interesting things. If you’ve enjoyed this edition, please consider forwarding it to a friend. If you’re reading for the first time, consider subscribing (it’s free!).